A couple years ago, it seemed as if everybody was applying to law school. The sudden surge was the result of the pandemic, a shaky economy, racial unrest and — who knows — maybe even “Better Call Saul.” Experts predicted that the increase was unsustainable, given such forces.
And they were right. Last year admissions fell 12%. And so far this year, the drop continues — at least for now. As of mid-October, the number of applicants for the Class of 2023 was down 11.7% from the year before. The number of applications had dropped 16.2%, meaning students are applying to fewer schools as well.
However, the admissions cycle is in the very early stages. We’re less than 20% through the cycle. Still, the numbers are the numbers.
“The drop right now is significant,” said Mike Spivey, founder of Spivey Consulting, who has a history of making accurate admissions forecasts. Last year, for instance, he predicted admissions would drop 12%, so his crystal ball was in fine working order.
This year, he expects the number to drop between 1 to 5% when it’s all said and done.
One thing that may be fueling the initial drop is that many students applied early last year because of the big bump in 2021. That’s the year when applications rose 13%, causing law schools to weed through an unprecedented number of high achieving applicants. Some students decided to hold off a year either because they didn’t get accepted into the schools they wanted or sought to apply during a less competitive year.
Susan Krinsky, executive vice president for operations and chief of staff for the Law School Admission Council (LSAC), which administers the Law School Admission Test (LSAT) said the numbers are not surprising.
“Right now, the early applicant volumes for 2023 are running about 14% below the early applicant numbers for 2022, but that’s not surprising given the large number of people who decided to opt out of the super-heated 2021 cycle and jump into the 2022 cycle instead,” she said.
Spivey also noted this trend in a blog post, saying “there is a mountain of anecdotal evidence that there was a huge number of reapplicants last year.”
Krinsky also cautioned that it’s hard to forecast cycles, particularly this early.
“As we have seen so vividly in recent years, early trends can change,” she said. “The 2021 cycle started relatively slowly, but over time became a chart-buster. The 2022 cycle started with a bang due to the carry-over from the 2021 cycle but slowed over time.”
There are many reasons why admissions trends command such interest. Schools like to know how the cycle is evolving so they can make sound choices when it comes to applicants. If there’s a smaller pool of applicants that means they can’t be as choosy.
For students, it’s also a big deal. A smaller pool means they can target certain law schools that may have been a reach when pools were larger. And not only are applicants down so far this cycle, so are LSAT scores in all bands, meaning prospective students with strong credentials could have more opportunities not just for admission but scholarships.
“There are a lot of good reasons to get an understanding of what’s going on,” said Mark Murray, an LSAC spokesman.
But forecasts are difficult, he noted. For instance, this year an additional LSAT test was held in September. That was not the case last year or the year before. In all, four tests were administered this fall up from three.
“So it’s very hard to make year-over-year projections,” he said.
There are other factors that come into play, he added. The 2021 cycle boost was also attributed to the racial unrest the nation saw, including the murder of George Floyd. People wanted to go to law school to enact change. The economy is always a factor. If it’s flailing, some people look to law school as a chance to gain a professional degree while waiting out rocky times.
